Why spices lose their punch and when the loss speeds up
A tray of cinnamon and chili flakes looks the same for months, but the flavor underneath is fading on a schedule you cannot see. Early fall, when the oven turns back on, is when that fading gets noticed.
The clock starts at grinding, not at buying
A whole cinnamon stick can hold most of its flavor for two years or more. Ground cinnamon, sitting open in a clay dish on a tray, is a different substance in every practical sense. Grinding breaks the plant cell walls and exposes the aromatic oils to air. Within about six months a ground spice has typically lost half its potency, even if the color barely changes and the smell test still seems to pass. Chili flakes follow the same curve but faster, since the capsaicin and the red color both break down under light. A spice does not go bad the way milk does. It goes quiet.
Why September is the month this catches up with people
As mornings turn cool and ovens get used again for roasting and baking, cooks reach for jars that sat mostly untouched since spring. That is exactly the jar that has had four or five months of warm kitchen air and daylight working against it. A tray or shelf near a window, styled for good light, is also the worst location for storage, since light and heat both accelerate the loss. The fix costs nothing: move the working jars into a cabinet, and keep out only what gets used within a few weeks. Smaller batches bought or ground more often beat a large jar that lasts a year, because the large jar is losing strength the entire time it waits.
A rough test that beats guessing
Rub a pinch of the spice between two fingers and smell it immediately. If the scent is faint or takes effort to notice, the flavor in the food will be fainter still, since cooking heat drives off more of what is left. Chili flakes that show no sharpness on the tongue within a second or two have likely passed useful strength, even if the color still looks bright red on the tray. Color is the least reliable signal of the three, because dyes and dry storage can keep a spice looking fresh long after the smell has gone.